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THE ‘SOMALI THREAT’ AND THE ETHIOPIAN ORIENTAL BORDER: FROM OGADEN WAR TO AL-SHABBAB TERROR (1977-2017) [Abstract ID: 0502-03]
Somalia and Ethiopia’s border has historically been a convulsed space. Throughout the 20th century both states clashed over Ogaden. Between 1960-1964 these contenders confront each other over the control of this region, evolving into a total war between 1977-1978. Today the eastern border of Ethiopia has become one of the greatest dangers to its stability and security. The disintegration of the Somali state after 1991 complicated border relation. Although the expansionist pretensions of Somalia were nullified due to the disappearance of central power, the fact is that regional disintegration, warlordism, and the growing Islamist expansion, initiated by the group al-Itihaad al-Islamiya, pushed Ethiopia against the ropes. Moreover, international abandonment and power vacuum in Somalia led the Islamic Courts Union (ICU) to dominate the entire south and center of the country. The repeated threats of the Islamist government which called to "recover Ogaden" forced Ethiopia to launch an attack in 2006 to overthrow the ICU and support the expansion of the Transitional Federal Government (TFG). However, UTI’s breakdown did not finish the ongoing threat on its border since its armed wing, al-Shabbab, continued its own strategy based on claiming to achieve a united Great Somalia under the designs of a fundamentalist State. This paper will analyze Ethiopia's strategies to secure its border and to fight against threats that come from Somalia as terrorism or smuggling. International support, regional alliances and its influence in the different regions of Somalia are key to understand Ethiopia’s future and region’s stability and security. For this analysis different sources will be used in order to clarify the diverse conflicts that took place in the Eastern frontier. Historic sources will be used for the 20th century information and for the last two decades newspapers, media, and even social networks will be handled in order to fully understand and explain these situations. This paper will be usefull for Ethiopian Studies because it will clarify the relations between Ethiopia and Somalia and it will deeply analyze the view of Somalia as a historic threat.